When Data Speaks: Decoding Everton's 12-Game Winless Streak Through the 'Allan Syndrome' Lens

In the spring of 2026, the Premier League witnessed a strange phenomenon. Everton under Carlo Ancelotti, a team that started the season in the top four, suddenly went on a 12-game winless streak. Sports headlines unanimously blamed the defense, spoke of a lack of focus, of individual errors. But I looked at the data and saw a completely different story. A story not about the defense, but about the heart of the system: midfielder Allan. When a team collapses, the media instinct is to seek the most striking image: a defensive error, a silly goal conceded. But for me, collapse always begins with quiet numbers. I had followed Everton since the start of the season, and I knew what Ancelotti's system was built on. It wasn't flashy possession football, but a tight pressing block, led by Allan's reading of the game and his tackling ability. He was the regulator, the first line of defense against opposition counter-attacks. I started digging into individual tracking data. The first number that stopped me: Allan's average touches per game in this 12-game streak was just 34. That was a nearly 40% drop from the early season, when he regularly touched the ball over 50 times. This wasn't a random fluctuation. This was a systemic signal. When Allan couldn't receive the ball, Everton's entire pressing structure collapsed. They lost their ability to win the ball back early, and the defense faced more direct pressure. I called this phenomenon the 'Allan Syndrome' – a hidden variable that the league table doesn't reflect. Pundits only saw the defense making mistakes, but they didn't ask why the defense was being put in such difficult situations. The answer lay in midfield. When the most important cog in the pressing machine is isolated, the whole system runs like a machine without oil. It doesn't break immediately, but it slowly falls apart. Interestingly, the data also showed a clear correlation: in the first five games of the winless streak, Everton still created dangerous chances, but their conversion rate was extremely low. This led many to think the problem was finishing. But I saw a different picture. When Allan was isolated, Everton's passes became further from goal, less incisive. They still had the ball, but they couldn't systematically get it into dangerous areas. They relied on individual moments of brilliance, and those moments couldn't be sustained over 12 games. I recalled the summer of 2026, when I followed the Bundesliga's restart after the pandemic. With stadiums closed, I found home teams won only 32% instead of the usual 46%. That was a systemic change, and I built a plan to track five major European leagues for three months to collect data. My article 'What is Home Advantage When No One is There?' was later bought by The Athletic. That experience taught me that when a variable changes suddenly, I must ask: what is changing systematically? And for Everton, the changing variable was Allan's role. But I had to be careful. Correlation is not causation. Was Allan being isolated causing Everton's collapse, or was Everton collapsing for another reason that led to Allan being isolated? I needed to check further. I looked at Everton's fixture list during that period. They faced a tough run: Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham. These are teams that press very well, and they might have actively targeted Allan. But the data showed that even in games against weaker teams, Allan's touch count remained low. This reinforced my hypothesis: the problem was internal to Everton's system, not from the opposition. Another detail I found crucial: during this period, Ancelotti experimented with several different tactical setups, but no change solved the core problem. He still played Allan in central midfield, but there was no adjustment to help him receive the ball more. Perhaps the issue was in how the full-backs and center-backs circulated the ball. Under pressure, they tended to play long balls or switch play to the wings instead of playing short into the middle for Allan. This inadvertently isolated him from the game. After my analysis was published, I received an unexpected call from the Everton coaching staff. They didn't agree with everything I wrote, but they admitted I had pointed out a blind spot they were trying to address. Three weeks later, I saw Allan being deployed deeper in a 4-3-3, closer to the defensive line. This allowed him to receive the ball from the center-backs more easily and get involved in build-up play earlier. As a result, Everton began to regain their stability. Everton's story is not one of collapse, but one of finding the missing variable. When a team's form dips, we are often quick to blame the defense or the attack. But sometimes, the problem lies in a small cog in the middle, a cog without which the whole machine stops working. Data never lies, but it doesn't speak for itself either. We have to know how to listen. The lesson from Everton is a lesson in analytical patience. A crisis is not for lamenting, but an opportunity to find the structural breaking point. And when you find that breaking point, you not only understand the problem, but you can also offer concrete solutions. That is why I always start each article about a team in decline by identifying the 'missing variable' rather than just listing the symptoms. Because symptoms are only the surface, while the missing variable is the root of the problem. In modern football, where everything can be measured, there is no room for ambiguity. Every number I touch has a scar, and every scar tells a story. Everton's story is about an isolated Brazilian midfielder, and about a system that forgot how to use him. It is a story about the fragility of tactics, and about the power of data in revealing the truth.